Head of the Central Bureau of Statistics Suhariyanto: I'm Not Fooling with Figures
Tempo, July 21, 2018
For the first time in history, the poverty rate in Indonesia touches a single digit. Last Monday, the Central Bureau of Statistics announced the number of poor people in Indonesia 9.82 percent or 25.95 million people. That figure is the result of a survey in March. Based on the latest survey, the poverty rate fell from 10.12 percent or 26.58 million in September last year.
The reason, during September 2017 to March last, the inflation rate of 1.92 percent; average per capita expenditure per month households 40 percent of the lowest layer grew by 3.06 percent; government social assistance grew 87.6 percent in the first quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2017, which only grew by 3.39 percent; as well as the successful rice and non-food aid program for the first quarter on schedule.
Yet this good news has drawn criticism. BPS is considered to be using too soft a standard in determining the poverty line. Others say the poverty rate is boosted by social assistance from governments seeking a positive image ahead of legislative elections and 2019 presidential elections.
Head of BPS Suhariyanto denied the assumption that the data he presented was political. "For BPS, the sweet one is said to be a bitter bitter bitter," said the agricultural economics doctor from the University of Reading, England, in a special interview with Tempo at his office in Central Jakarta on Wednesday last week.
To Tempo reporter M. Taufiqurohman, Reza Maulana, Angelina Anjar, and Nur Alfiyah who met him, Suhariyanto said many bitterns are slipped in the latest findings of BPS. For example, the vulnerability of non-poor people position on the threshold of poverty line and the increasing of Gini coefficient in rural area. The Gini coefficient (Gini ratio) is an indicator showing the level of income inequality, with a magnitude of 0 for perfect equity and 1 for absolute inequality. "This is a big warning," said the man from Blitar, East Java, who is familiarly called Kecuk it.
What is your base mentioning 9.82 percent as Indonesia's lowest poverty figure in history?
Because only now we enter a single digit. BPS measures poverty since 1988, but at that time it was only three years. When an economic crisis occurs, BPS refines its methodology. So, if we track down until now, it's the lowest. In 1999, the poverty rate was still 23.43 percent, about 47.97 million people. That's the highest. Since then, the trend has declined steadily, except in 2006, the poor had risen 4.5 million due to rising fuel prices.
Which factors matter most?
Disbursement of social assistance. The realization of the distribution of social assistance program of welfare rice (rastra) in January was 99.65 percent, February 99.66 percent, and March 99.62 percent. Much better than in the first quarter of 2017. Last year, Mr. President was a bit harsh on his ministers because BPS data showed that the literature did not go down.
The poverty rate when it rises?
In March 2017, down 0.06 percent. But the number of poor people rose from 27.76 million to 27.77 million. So when the BPS released it in July 2017, Mr. President asked, "Why, stagnant, yes? What's the problem, anyway?" I convey this issue because the literature did not go down in January, February, and March.Feeling he did not get a report, he was a bit hard in the cabinet session.
President Joko Widodo reprimanded the BPS in the hearing?
Absolutely not. I do not feel reprimanded because I feel no mistake. The warning was directed to ministers.
The news circulated that the President asked the BPS survey to be adjusted to the distribution of the literature.
Actually not so. Since the literature does not go down, he reminds all social assistance to be distributed evenly since January. BPS conducts surveys every March and September. He only reminded. Not to say, for example, "Because of the March BPS survey, so help nggrojog in March." Learn from it, this year gets better.
This means that the timing of assistance is aligned with the BPS survey?
We conducted a survey in 82 cities, the government would know. But they do not know in which societies and when the BPS came. Say they distribute help Monday, we come Thursday, right, it's different price.
If the literature is shared before the survey, what parameters are improving?
Only expenditure on rice. Others are not affected. Therefore, it can not be tricked. For poverty, we surveyed 300,000 households at random. Location map is only knowable CPM. The Minister also will not let me know. Nor can we alter the survey casually.
Why?
First, we are not alone when designing the methodology. We involve all stakeholders, including economists. Secondly, I will not mess with numbers. The stakes are too big, reputation. We were checked. First, by the Statistics Society Forum, which consists of university professors. If a
